CapIQ

Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-08-10.

Consensus Tape

Weibo's consensus turned in the last three months, and it turned on profit rather than volume. FY2027 normalized EPS is -12.9% against its May snapshot and FY2028 is -12.8%, while revenue moved only -3.3% and -4.1%. The prints say the same thing: 4Q25 revenue beat by 6.5% while EPS missed by -20.8%, ending a six-quarter beat streak. Consensus now carries FY2026 gross margin at 73.3%, down from 77.0%.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The cut landed on earnings, not on revenue

Source: derived from vendor data.

The two lines have different shapes, and the difference is the point. Revenue estimates rose into the May snapshot and then gave it all back: across the full six months FY2027 revenue is actually +2.1% and FY2028 is -1.0%. EPS fell at every step — FY2027 from 1.74308 to 1.69559 to 1.47678, a cumulative -15.3%, and FY2028 -20.2%. A revenue line that ends roughly where it started against an earnings line down a sixth is a margin-driven downgrade, not a demand-driven one.

Two mechanical notes on how far this reads. The one-month and current snapshots are identical on all four series, so the entire cut landed between the May and July marks rather than in the last few weeks. And the feed carries momentum for FY2027 and FY2028 only — there is no comparable history for the current year, so the revision cycle is visible on the outer years alone.

Revenue still beats; the EPS beat streak broke in 4Q25

Source: derived from vendor data.

Read together, the two records separate cleanly. Revenue has landed at or above consensus in seven of the last eight quarters and the single exception, 2Q24, missed by -0.0229% — an in-line print, not a shortfall. EPS was the same story only louder, with six consecutive beats averaging well into double digits and a +26.2154% peak in 2Q25, until 4Q25 came in at 0.25 against a 0.31559 consensus for a -20.7833% miss and 1Q26 followed at 0.34 against 0.36.

The signature matters more than either number. In 4Q25 revenue beat by +6.5234% and EPS missed by -20.7833% in the same print. Guidance that had been reliably conservative on profit stopped being conservative while the top line kept clearing — which is what a cost or mix problem looks like from the outside, and it is what the estimate cuts of the following months then priced in.

FY2026 is a reset year: revenue +2.6%, EBITDA -10.0%, free cash flow -30.6%

Source: derived from vendor data. FY2025 revenue and EBITDA are reported actuals; later years are consensus.

Revenue never breaks stride — +2.6% in FY2026, then +2.1% and +1.8% — but everything below it steps down and takes years to climb back. Against the FY2025 actuals, consensus has EBITDA -10.0%, GAAP net income -33.5%, operating cash flow -25.8% and free cash flow -30.6% in FY2026. EBITDA does not regain its FY2025 level until FY2028, and normalized EPS falls -13.8% to 1.42249 before recovering +3.8% and +4.5%. The dividend line moves with it: consensus DPS drops -30.8% to 0.55709 in FY2026 and is still below the FY2025 mark of 0.80525 by FY2029.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Gross margin steps down from 77.0% to 73.3%, and ROE from 12.9% to 8.8%

Source: derived from vendor data.

This is the line the EPS cuts are really about. Consensus gross margin drops from 77.00016% in FY2025 to 73.30042% in FY2026 and never returns — 73.81951% and 74.20411% in the two years after. Return on equity does the same thing more sharply, from 12.91003% to 8.81497%, and then keeps drifting down to 8.60193% by FY2029 even as revenue and EBITDA grow. Neither series carries an analyst count in the feed, so treat both as a thinner claim than the revenue and EPS lines above; the driver-level work behind them sits on the broker-model tab.

Quarterly consensus has revenue back near 481 million dollars by 4Q26 with EPS still around 0.35

Source: derived from vendor data. 4Q25 and 1Q26 are reported actuals; the remaining quarters are consensus.

The forward quarters restate the annual picture in miniature. Revenue is modelled to climb from 421.325 in 1Q26 to 481.39853 in 4Q26 — a level barely above the 473.258 Weibo actually printed in 4Q25 — while normalized EPS sits at 0.36206, 0.35286 and 0.34894, edging down across a rising top line. Quarterly gross margin carries the same shape, 71.62102% in 2Q26 against 78.97479% in 4Q24. Coverage here is thin and thinning: seven analysts on 2Q26 revenue, five on 3Q26 and four on 4Q26.

The street agrees on revenue and splits on earnings

Source: derived from vendor data.

On seventeen analysts, FY2027 revenue estimates run from 1733.84262 to 1919 — a band of roughly a tenth around the mean, and FY2026 is tighter still at 1759.83365 to 1833 with a standard deviation of 21.58259. Earnings are a different argument. On fifteen analysts, FY2027 normalized EPS spans 1.13 to 1.78182, and FY2028 spans 1.15 to 1.8648 on ten. The high FY2028 estimate is more than half again the low one, on a revenue base the same analysts price within a few percent of each other. That is disagreement about margin and cost, not about the size of the business.

FY2029 is the sharpest case — one analyst, so the low, mean and high are the same number on every metric, and the +8.9% revenue step it implies has nothing behind it to test. FY2028 is better but not deep: eleven on revenue, ten on EPS, seven on EBITDA and seven on GAAP net income.

Sixteen price targets from 6.60 to 11.10 dollars, and a book split down the middle

Source: derived from vendor data.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The book is close to evenly divided: six buys and two outperforms against seven holds, one underperform and one sell. Target prices are correspondingly unheroic — sixteen of them, low 6.6, high 11.1, and a mean of 9.03812 essentially on top of the 9 median, so the distribution is symmetric rather than dragged by an outlier. The high-to-low span is under two times, which is narrow for a name whose FY2028 EPS estimates differ by more than half. This source carries no current share price, so none of it can be read as upside or downside.